Tuesday, May 08, 2018

The Old Paradigm


In Ontario, the conventional wisdom dictates that elections are won in the middle. That wisdom goes all the way back to the 1940's, when the Progressive Conservatives won 12 consecutive elections. Steve Paikin writes:

In 1943, the Tories had a 49-year-old war veteran named George Drew (born 124 years ago today) as their leader. He was the first politician to speak of a “Big Blue Machine,” one that would fan out across the province, capturing constituency after constituency. And for the next 42 years, that’s pretty much what happened. The Tories occupied the broad middle of the political spectrum. To their left was the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation — the party that in the early 1960s would morph into the NDP. The Liberals were, despite their name, a more rural, conservative party.
As long as the Tories could hang on to the middle, thereby splitting the votes of their critics between the other two parties, they could continue to win elections. And that’s what they did, on 12 consecutive occasions between 1943 and 1985.

When the Tories moved right and aped Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, David Peterson -- with the help of Bob Rae -- moved into the middle. Mike Harris campaigned like a centrist and replaced Peterson. But his policies moved Ontario starkly to the right. Then Dalton McGuinty moved into the middle and replaced Harris.

But these days, the middle seems to have disappeared:

One of the things that makes this 2018 election campaign so interesting is that none of the major political parties today seems at all interested in seizing the middle. Both the Liberals and the New Democrats are vying to be the more left-wing party, each trying to offer a more interventionist platform than the other. And curiously, the PCs under Doug Ford seem content to define their conservatism in more right-wing, populist terms — consistent with the new leader’s “Ford Nation” branding.
Ironically, this opens up a large gap in the middle where pollsters tell us elections are usually won. Former PC leader Patrick Brown understood this: he tried to coax his fellow Tories away from the fringes and more toward the centre of the political spectrum. He was mostly successful at doing so, although the hold-outs (social conservatives, anti-carbon-tax types, etc.) certainly made lots of noise.
Andrea Horwath also understood that in 2014, when she tried to move her party toward the middle by offering tax cuts to small businesses and promising to find $600 million in spending cuts — two very un-NDP-like planks in the platform. Her problem was, she couldn’t bring her troops along with her. Too many NDP grassroots members don’t care about winning but about staying true to their socialist principles. That’s perfectly fine, except that the disconnect was apparent for all to see — and it hurt Horwath’s chances of winning.
In fairness, Ford is in some senses trying to have it both ways. He wants to stay true to his populist, right-wing roots, while at the same time flirting with more moderate Ontarians. That’s surely why he backtracked on his pledge to allow development in the Greenbelt and has tried to assure people that if he wins, there will be no massive downsizing of the public sector — something that former PC leader Tim Hudak pledged to do during the 2014 campaign.
Nevertheless, Ford’s core message of tax cuts, taking a step back on fighting climate change, and finding billions of dollars in so-called efficiencies has left many in the centre at best suspicious and at worst alarmed.
To be sure, some will vote for the Green Party, which has tried to advance some centrist policies — but the Greens have neither the money nor the megaphone to cut through. 

So where does that leave us? In uncharted territory. The old paradigm seems to be broken.

Image: TVO

12 comments:

The Mound of Sound said...


Viewing this from a safe distance, Owen, it's like watching a train wreck. Here's how I would sum up your candidates: #1 - "none of the above"
#2 - "none of the above"
#3 - "especially not you, Doug, not you"

This seems like a recurring theme in every challenge we face these days. There are usually no good choices. Thus the case is made for a spoiled ballot. You're still voting. You're still counting. You're just telling the lot of them that none of them deserves to win.

Owen Gray said...

And that's precisely the dilemma, Mound. None of them deserve to win. But will my vote enable the worst of the lot to walk through the door?

The Mound of Sound said...


Will your vote prevent the worst of the lot from walking through the door, Owen?

Owen Gray said...

That's the problem, Mound. A teaching colleague of mine has a son who moved to Wisconsin and married into a Republican family. He and his wife decided not to vote in the 2016 election because they did not like either Trump or Hillary.

Trump won Wisconsin by 21,000 votes and that helped tip the Electoral College in his favour. They are left to wonder how many other Wisconsin voters did as they did, and whether their choice -- after all, it was a choice -- helped give the nation Donald Trump.

Anonymous said...

I'm surprised Paikin still gets fooled by the Liberal strategy of posing as the NDP at election time, then running as red Tories when in office. Has he already forgotten that it was the Libs that actually implemented Mike Harris' insane plan to privatize Ontario Hydro?

I say the old paradigm still holds, from left to right: NDP -> Libs -> Druggy Dougie.

Cap

Owen Gray said...

It's true, Cap, that the Liberal strategy of running from the Left and governing from the Right still seems to hold. Nonetheless, none of the parties seem to be pitching to the middle.

the salamander said...

.. 'politics' is not the realm of aspiring public servants
its often an opportunistic career choice..
witness Andrew Scheer or Jason Kenney

I don't claim its easy.. but it takes little intellect
In fact its a bit like being a character actor in film
(I use the term 'character' with a big grin)
role playing is more like it

I recognize exemplars right away
I respect Michael Chong
Stand him up against, say.. Peter Kent
and tell me who is real & who sold out long ago

But we have plenty of Canadian exemplars
its just that about none of the elected
or the background partisans make the grade
and then they try to muzzle biologists and scientists

Owen Gray said...

We don't seem to be producing a steller group of politicians in this new century, Sal. I suppose there are a lot of reasons for that phenomenon.

the salamander said...

.. i get 99.9 % of my 'news' & opinions off the web & twitter
The NDP have been essentially invisible in Ontario and federally..
Trudeau of course grinds on
But Andrew Scheer sucks up via Main Media daily
and in Ontario it is Doug.. Doug and more Doug

I have huge misgivings where this is all heading
and yes I recall Christy Clark and Ms Redford

This is not the era of 'the public servant'
This is the era of Loserville.. for the public

By the way.. what is Dimitri Soudas up to?
He seems to flip flop n fly partywise
Ken Boessenkool headed home to spend time with his family
after Patrick Brown disappeared himself along with Rick Dykstra
Jenni Byrne, like a massive goldfish
is seen more n more on tv defending Andrew Scheer
and to pretend Scheer is an average prairie guy
is laughable ..

My family are prairie Manitobans & southwest Ontario.. merged
going back to early 1800's from Ireland, pre famine
and I don't see them buying Kenney, Scheer or Ford
or Trudeau either, for that matter

But this is the old story.. either produce a credible candidate
or roll over and die - let creeps like Donald Trump
or Jason Kenney take charge
Trudeau still has his chance.. in OK shape
& Wynne only came in when McGuinty vanished
in one of the great political disappearing acts of all time

Where is the NDP with a void like this?
Surrendering the field to Ford? Why ?
Where are the NDP folks knocking on our door
at a reasonable hour.. (not 6:00 PM on Sunday)
All we get is Jehovas Witness.. who now also frequent our bus stops

Owen Gray said...

This is an opportunity for the NDP, sal. But they seem to be slow off the mark. These are strange times.

John B. said...

In Ontario the NDP has left it all sitting there for the last twenty years. The labour guys that are left are mostly public service. Now even the CRAP Party is exploiting issues that, but for an unwillingness to study the electorate with an understanding of basic labour economics, could and should have been theirs for the taking. They're blind and deaf. And when they do come up with something to say, they'd have been better off remaining dumb.

Owen Gray said...

Quite true, John. The NDP lost its way many moons ago.